第88回金沢解析セミナー（2021/11/12）

日時：11月12日(金) 16:45–18:15 第88回金沢解析セミナー

講演者： 山本 奈央 氏（アリゾナ州立大学）

タイトル ： The differential equation models of COVID-19 epidemic

アブストラクト：Infectious disease modeling is attracting widespread interest due to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) global pandemic. While ordinary differential equations such as the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model and its advanced version, the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model, are frequently used, there are not many models that use partial differential equations. We modeled the meta-population dynamics of COVID-19 in Arizona using ODE 
and the spatio-temporal dynamics using PDE with empirical data on human 
mobility retrieved from Google Community Mobility Reports. Both our ODE 
and PDE models showed that mobility restrictions help to reduce the size of an epidemic. Quantifying the impact of mobility restrictions together with the vaccination rate on minimizing the epidemic impact can provide useful insights for policy makers.

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